EnglishPortugueseSpanish

Application of population growth models for the city of Florianópolis, SC, Brazil: a comparison between the Malthus and Verhulst models

Project summary

Mathematics encompasses several domains of society and has been developed over the years. British economist Thomas Malthus promoted a theory in 1798 with a mathematical model for population growth. Malthus argued that the rate of population growth at any given time is proportional to the total population at that time. However, Belgian mathematician Pierre Verhulst found limitations in the model developed by Malthus and presented a new equation suggesting that a population will grow to a sustainable maximum, that is, it tends to stabilize. The analysis of a city's population growth is important to characterize the social, economic, historical and political aspects. In this sense, I connected an important aspect of my city to the application of mathematical models. This project aims to apply the two mathematical models, Malthus and Verhulst, to examine which is the most effective to describe the population growth of Florianópolis Santa Catarina (SC), Brazil from 2012 to 2020. My hypothesis, related to the comparison of models, suggests that the Verhulst model will present results closer to the real population data, due to the greater complexity of the formula for including the value of the population growth rate. Applying the formula of the models to the values ​​of the real population, the constants 'k' will be obtained, which made the comparison possible. The construction of graphs will be fundamental to visualize which of the values ​​obtained for the constant k, in the two models, is close to the values ​​of the real population. In order to obtain precise results, the least squares method was applied to the values ​​that will be obtained through the Verhulst model. So, making the comparison, the hypothesis will, in fact, be confirmed. The Malthus and Verhulst models satisfactorily described the real process of population dynamics in Florianópolis, SC, Brazil, for the period 2012-2020. However, the values ​​that the Verhulst model will provide will be closer to the values ​​of the real population of Florianópolis. Key words: Mathematical models, population growth.

Students

Victory Machado Didone

Guidance counsellors

Cristiane Maria Alves Pissarra Fernandes

Institution

EIU Science Fair
  SC -
  Brazil

Popular vote*

Did you like it? So vote and share now:

167+

Leave your comment

What did you think of this project? Participate by leaving your comment below:

Subscribe now
Notify of
guest
7 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline feedback
View all comments
Andrea
Andrea
6 months ago

????????????

1+
Bernard
Bernard
6 months ago

Excellent project! Very educational video and banner. Congratulations 👏👏

1+
Jane Costa
Jane Costa
6 months ago

It is very interesting to note that the Verhulst model very accurately reflects the population growth of Floripa. Congratulations.

0
Victory
Victory
6 months ago
Reply to  Jane Costa

Thanks for the feedback!

0
Fabiana
Fabiana
6 months ago

Super interesting! Very well researched, organized and presented work. Congratulations!!!

0
Bernard
Bernard
6 months ago

I'm also from Florianópolis and I really liked the way the work was approached!!

0
Felipe Campos
Felipe Campos
6 months ago

Congratulations on your research! I liked it more. Keep evolving👏

0

Popular vote*

Did you like it? So vote and share now:

167+

Students

Victory Machado Didone

Guidance counsellors

Cristiane Maria Alves Pissarra Fernandes

Institution

EIU Science Fair
  SC –
  Brazil

Educational Incentives and Awards Offered

Research Areas

Get to know the projects that are competing in all of Mostratec Virtual's research areas:

Cellular and Molecular Biology and Microbiology
Biochemistry and Chemistry
Environmental Sciences
Animal and Plant Sciences
Computer Science
Planetary and Earth Sciences and Mathematics and Physics
Health Sciences
Education and Humanities
Environmental and Sanitary Engineering
Engineering and Materials
Electrical engineering
Electronic Engineering
Mechanical Engineering
History and Social Sciences
7
0
Click to leave your comment and participate!x
()
x

Popular Jury Awards

For the People's Jury awards, only single votes (one per user) and that are cast between 0/00 and 26:10 on 23/59 will be considered valid.

Entrepreneur Profile Test

Fill in your details below to perform your test: